Will the 2020s be the AV Decade?
At the end of the year predictions about the future are common. At the end of a decade, the predictions proliferate and foresee either a world vastly improved via technology or a world increasingly dire. A recent article, Flying Cars, Hyperloops and the Other 2020 Tech Predictions That Didn’t Pan Out, demonstrates how the purveyors of technology seek to wow us, but the reality remains – technology that doesn’t generate profit for its masters is little more than a parlour trick.
The future isn’t so much foreseen as it is built by those who envision it and can profit from it. With respect to autonomous vehicles (AVs), will the 2020s be the decade of AVs? The AV ecosystem is vast. An AV can operate on water, in the air or on the public roads. At present, there are about 40 companies developing AVs to operate on the public roads, but there are nearly one thousand companies that support the AV ecosystem by making chips, sensors, actuators, screens, high-definition maps, software, etc. Again, the AV ecosystem is vast; however, the companies supporting the well-known AV developers are or should be making a profit. The AV developers, who promise to whisk passengers safely from A to B on the public roads, are not making a profit by offering rides. In fact, they are operating as Research & Development companies with investors’ money or funds generated from other profit-making ventures.
Absent a stream of revenue sourced from a vast ocean of AV end-users, the promise of AVs will remain unfulfilled. The future of AVs, in my opinion, will be built by those who have done more than navigate the known challenges to widespread AV adoption, such as (a) safety, (b) reliability, (c) data privacy, (d) consumer acceptance, (e) robust infrastructure, and (f) regulatory frameworks. All these challenges are likely to be solved in the 2020s. And yet, AVs may only operate within selected geo-fenced areas throughout the coming decade. Operating AVs in limited environments will do well to demonstrate the safety and reliability of AVs, but it may not demonstrate the profitability of AVs. The utilisation of AVs at scale hinges upon the AV developers devising a way to tap profitably into the vast ocean of consumers. When that hurdle is overcome, then the 2020s can be the decade of AVs.
